Almeria 1-2 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Real Madrid at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almeria vs Real Madrid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos plays host to Almeria versus Real Madrid in La Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 14 August 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Real Madrid (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Real Madrid haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Real Madrid have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 0.99 xG and Real Madrid 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Real Madrid attack 1.138 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.094. Data: 0 Almeria games / 38 Real Madrid games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Almeria 25% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 46%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Real Madrid 2.17. Real Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Madrid if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 25% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Almeria 0.99 / Real Madrid 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Real Madrid attack 1.138 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Real Madrid xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Real Madrid kick off?
Almeria vs Real Madrid kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Real Madrid?
Almeria 1 - 2 Real Madrid.
Where is Almeria vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What competition is Almeria vs Real Madrid part of?
Almeria vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 25% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Almeria and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Real Madrid?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almeria and Real Madrid in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Real Madrid (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Almeria's attack at 0.85x the league average against Real Madrid's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Real Madrid's attack (1.14x) against Almeria's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
25%
3.93
28%
3.55
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.43
1.43
Real Madrid xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
6%
16.45
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Almeria and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Almeria and 1.43 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Pre-Season
Real Madrid
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Real Madrid go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almeria have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Real Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almeria
0
Draws
4
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Real Madrid?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 0, Real Madrid have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when Real Madrid 3-2 Almeria.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Almeria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Almeria 1-2 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 0.99 xG and Real Madrid 1.43 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Real Madrid attack 1.14 / defence 0.91, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 25% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 46%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.