Almeria 3-2 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almeria at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almeria vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos plays host to Almeria versus Girona in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Thursday 20 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almeria have collected 0.78 PPG across 9 La Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 games at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.78 — Almeria are significantly better at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos than their overall form suggests.
Girona's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 2D 5L from 9 games (0.89 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in La Liga this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.89 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.78 PPG for Almeria against 0.89 for Girona. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Almeria register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Girona in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Almeria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almeria 56% and Girona 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 56% | Girona 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.59 xG and Girona 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 1.039 / defence 1.087 | Girona attack 0.803 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.164. Data: 9 Almeria games / 9 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 51% | Draw 25% | Girona 24%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Girona 4.17. Almeria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almeria as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almeria if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Almeria 75% | Girona 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 51% | Draw 25% | Girona 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Almeria 1.59 / Girona 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 1.039 / def 1.087 | Girona attack 0.803 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Almeria (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Girona xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Girona kick off?
Almeria vs Girona kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 20 October 2022 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Girona?
Almeria 3 - 2 Girona.
Where is Almeria vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What competition is Almeria vs Girona part of?
Almeria vs Girona is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 51% chance of winning, Girona a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Almeria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Almeria and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Girona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almeria and Girona in?
Almeria (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Girona (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Almeria's attack rating (1.04) and Girona's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Girona's attack (0.80x) against Almeria's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almeria Win
51%
1.97
25%
3.99
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.61
1.02
Girona xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
5%
20.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Almeria and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Almeria and 1.02 for Girona, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Almeria have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 2W 1D 6L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona's form line: 2W 2D 5L from 9 games, 0.89 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.78 PPG for Almeria against 0.89 for Girona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Almeria have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Girona have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Girona's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almeria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almeria are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona in 78%.
Last 9 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Girona in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Girona have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Girona away?
Almeria's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.50 PPG; Girona away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Girona won 6-2 on 17 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almeria have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Girona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almeria
1
Draws
2
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Girona?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 1, Girona have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Almeria 0-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Almeria, 75% for Girona — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Almeria and 50% for Girona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Almeria's games and 75% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almeria vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Almeria's matches and 50% of Girona's.
Do Almeria and Girona tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Girona in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Almeria edge out Girona 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria beat Girona 3-2 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.59 xG and Girona 1.02 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Almeria beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Girona outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 1.04 / defence 1.09 against Girona attack 0.80 / defence 1.13, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 51% | Draw 25% | Girona 24%, with Almeria to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 56%, Girona 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almeria 0.78 PPG, Girona 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almeria win broke the near-deadlock. Almeria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Girona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.