Almeria 3-1 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almeria at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almeria vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Celta Vigo travel to Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos to take on Almeria. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Almeria have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 2L across 5 games at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Almeria are significantly better at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos than their overall form suggests.
Celta Vigo — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Celta Vigo have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Almeria) versus 1.00 (Celta Vigo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Almeria trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Celta Vigo trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 64% versus Celta Vigo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 64% | Celta Vigo 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 2.08 xG and Celta Vigo 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 1.128 / defence 1.189 | Celta Vigo attack 0.779 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.156. Celta Vigo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Almeria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Almeria games / 49 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 61% | Draw 21% | Celta Vigo 19%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Celta Vigo 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Almeria (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almeria are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Almeria 80% | Celta Vigo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 61% | Draw 21% | Celta Vigo 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Almeria 2.08 / Celta Vigo 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 1.128 / def 1.189 | Celta Vigo attack 0.779 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Almeria (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Celta Vigo xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Almeria vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Celta Vigo?
Almeria 3 - 1 Celta Vigo.
Where is Almeria vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What competition is Almeria vs Celta Vigo part of?
Almeria vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 61% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Almeria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Almeria and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Celta Vigo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almeria and Celta Vigo in?
Almeria (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Almeria's attack rating (1.13) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almeria Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.84
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Almeria xG
Total xG
3.15
1.07
Celta Vigo xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
12%
8.00
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
2%
42.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Almeria and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Almeria and 1.07 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Celta Vigo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almeria's recent record stands at 3W 1D 7L from 11 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 6L across 11 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almeria on 0.91 PPG, Celta Vigo on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almeria have managed 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 1W 0D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Celta Vigo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almeria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almeria are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.09 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 3W 1D 7L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Celta Vigo away?
Almeria's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.80 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Celta Vigo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Almeria's record when hosting Celta Vigo specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almeria
1
Draws
2
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Celta Vigo?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 1, Celta Vigo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when Celta Vigo 1-0 Almeria.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 80%, Celta Vigo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Almeria and 60% for Celta Vigo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Celta Vigo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Almeria's games and 40% of Celta Vigo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almeria vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Almeria's matches and 60% of Celta Vigo's.
Do Almeria and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almeria cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Celta Vigo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria beat Celta Vigo 3-1 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 2.08 xG and Celta Vigo 1.07 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Almeria beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 1.13 / defence 1.19 against Celta Vigo attack 0.78 / defence 1.29, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 61% | Draw 21% | Celta Vigo 19%, with Almeria to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 64%, Celta Vigo 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almeria 0.91 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almeria win broke the near-deadlock. Almeria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.