Almeria 1-1 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Madrid at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almeria vs Atletico Madrid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almeria host Atletico Madrid at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos in La Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 January 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almeria stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria's home record at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos: 5W 0D 3L from 8 La Liga appearances (1.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.88 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Almeria are significantly better at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Atletico Madrid have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Madrid away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Almeria at 1.30 PPG versus Atletico Madrid's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Almeria in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Atletico Madrid in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 56% versus Atletico Madrid 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 50% | Atletico Madrid 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.13 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.977 / defence 1.170 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.158 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.066. Data: 16 Almeria games / 54 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 29% | Draw 26% | Atletico Madrid 44%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Atletico Madrid 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Madrid at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Almeria 62% | Atletico Madrid 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 29% | Draw 26% | Atletico Madrid 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Almeria 1.13 / Atletico Madrid 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.977 / def 1.170 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.158 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Atletico Madrid xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Almeria vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Atletico Madrid?
Almeria 1 - 1 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Almeria vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What competition is Almeria vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Almeria vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 29% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Almeria and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Atletico Madrid?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almeria and Atletico Madrid in?
Almeria (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almeria's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Atletico Madrid's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Madrid's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
29%
3.39
26%
3.79
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.58
1.44
Atletico Madrid xG
3.39
29%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
7%
14.38
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Almeria and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Almeria and 1.44 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almeria come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 2D 9L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atletico Madrid sit at 1.69 PPG from 16 outings (8W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Almeria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Almeria's home form reads 5W 0D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Atletico Madrid have taken 2.00 points per game from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Almeria are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.44 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Last 16 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 5W 2D 9L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 8W 3D 5L in their last 16 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.88 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Almeria or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almeria have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Almeria's record when hosting Atletico Madrid specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almeria
2
Draws
2
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Atletico Madrid?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 0, Atletico Madrid have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Almeria 2-2 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 62%, Atletico Madrid 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Almeria) and 38% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Atletico Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Almeria's recent matches and 38% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almeria vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Almeria's recent games and 38% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almeria and Atletico Madrid share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Regular Season - 17, as Almeria and Atletico Madrid drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.13 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.44 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.98 / defence 1.17 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.16 / defence 0.89, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 29% | Draw 26% | Atletico Madrid 44%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 50%, Atletico Madrid 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.