Alaves 2-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valencia at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Valencia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valencia make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alaves have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's home record at Estadio de Mendizorroza: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio de Mendizorroza than their overall form suggests.
Valencia's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valencia have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Valencia are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Alaves lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Valencia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Valencia — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 44% versus Valencia 74%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 39% | Valencia 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.19 xG and Valencia 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.671 / defence 1.092 | Valencia attack 1.085 / defence 1.613. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.110. Alaves's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Valencia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.613 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Alaves games / 23 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 32% | Draw 31% | Valencia 38%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Valencia 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 40% | Valencia 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 32% | Draw 31% | Valencia 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Alaves 1.19 / Valencia 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.671 / def 1.092 | Valencia attack 1.085 / def 1.613 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Valencia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Valencia xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Valencia kick off?
Alaves vs Valencia kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Valencia?
Alaves 2 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Alaves vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Valencia part of?
Alaves vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 32% chance of winning, Valencia a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Alaves and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Valencia?
Record (1 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 0 | Valencia 1W.
What form are Alaves and Valencia in?
Alaves (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Valencia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alaves's attack at 0.67x the league average against Valencia's defence at 1.61x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (1.08x) against Alaves's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
32%
3.14
31%
3.27
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.51
1.31
Valencia xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Alaves and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Alaves and 1.31 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves come into this having played 23 games, going 4W 5D 14L for 0.74 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (7W 9D 7L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valencia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Alaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Alaves's home form reads 3W 3D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.52 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia in 74%.
Last 23 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Valencia in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 4W 5D 14L in their last 23 games (0.74 PPG), while Valencia have gone 7W 9D 7L in their last 23 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Valencia away?
Alaves's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.09 PPG; Valencia away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won 3-0 on 27 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Alaves
2
Draws
2
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Valencia?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 4, Valencia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Valencia 3-2 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Valencia?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 36%, Valencia 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (Alaves) and 73% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 36% of Alaves's games and 82% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alaves vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Alaves's recent games and 73% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Valencia tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Valencia in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Valencia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Valencia 2-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.19 xG and Valencia 1.31 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Alaves beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.67 / defence 1.09 against Valencia attack 1.08 / defence 1.61, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 32% | Draw 31% | Valencia 38%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Alaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 39%, Valencia 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Valencia's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valencia arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.74. Form was overturned, with Alaves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.