Alaves 0-0 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Alaves take on Sevilla.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Mendizorroza plays host to Alaves versus Sevilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Friday 4 March 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alaves have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estadio de Mendizorroza this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio de Mendizorroza than their overall form suggests.
Sevilla's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Sevilla are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Alaves lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Sevilla — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 46% versus Sevilla 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 46% | Sevilla 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.68 xG and Sevilla 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.719 / defence 1.056 | Sevilla attack 0.699 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.138. Alaves's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Alaves games / 26 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 26% | Draw 39% | Sevilla 35%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 3.85 | Draw 2.56 | Sevilla 2.86. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Alaves's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.52 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 29%. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 50% | Sevilla 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 26% | Draw 39% | Sevilla 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 29% | xG Alaves 0.68 / Sevilla 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.719 / def 1.056 | Sevilla attack 0.699 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Sevilla xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Sevilla kick off?
Alaves vs Sevilla kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 4 March 2022 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Sevilla?
Alaves 0 - 0 Sevilla.
Where is Alaves vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Sevilla part of?
Alaves vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 26% chance of winning, Sevilla a 35% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Alaves and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Sevilla?
Record (1 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 1 | Sevilla 0W.
What form are Alaves and Sevilla in?
Alaves (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Sevilla (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Alaves's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Sevilla's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.68. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (0.70x) against Alaves's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.87
39%
2.57
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Alaves xG
Total xG
1.52
0.84
Sevilla xG
3.87
26%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.41
71%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
51%
1.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
18%
5.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.9 | 18.4 | 7.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.5%.
How many goals are Alaves and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Alaves and 0.84 for Sevilla, a combined total of 1.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves come into this having played 26 games, going 5W 6D 15L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sevilla sit at 2.08 PPG from 26 outings (15W 9D 2L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.27 PPG clear of Alaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Alaves's home form reads 4W 3D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Sevilla have taken 1.62 points per game from 13 outings (5W 6D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sevilla's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.50 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Sevilla in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 5W 6D 15L in their last 26 games (0.81 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 15W 9D 2L in their last 26 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Sevilla away?
Sevilla's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.15 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Alaves or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Sevilla in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Alaves
4
Draws
1
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Sevilla?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 3, Sevilla have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sevilla 1-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Sevilla?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Sevilla see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 46%, Sevilla 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Alaves and 8% for Sevilla.
On the defensive side: Sevilla in 54%; Alaves have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Alaves's recent matches and 38% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Alaves's recent games and 8% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Alaves's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves and Sevilla finished level at 0-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.68 xG and Sevilla 0.84 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sevilla landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.72 / defence 1.06 against Sevilla attack 0.70 / defence 0.83, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 26% | Draw 39% | Sevilla 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 46% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 46%, Sevilla 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sevilla's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.