Alaves 0-1 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Betis at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Real Betis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Real Betis at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 18 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 1W 0D 6L from 7 La Liga matches — 0.43 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.29 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 14% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alaves have posted 1W 0D 3L at Estadio de Mendizorroza — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Real Betis — All Games: 3W 3D 2L from 8 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Betis's away record: 2W 1D 1L from 4 road trips in La Liga this season (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Real Betis — 1.07 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.43). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Alaves in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 71% of games.
Real Betis in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 14% versus Real Betis 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 29% | Real Betis 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.85 xG and Real Betis 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.694 / defence 1.285 | Real Betis attack 1.036 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.005 / away 0.921. Alaves's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Real Betis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Alaves games / 8 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 25% | Draw 32% | Real Betis 44%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Real Betis 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Betis are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Betis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 25% | Real Betis 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 25% | Draw 32% | Real Betis 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Alaves 0.85 / Real Betis 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.694 / def 1.285 | Real Betis attack 1.036 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.005 / away 0.921 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Real Betis xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Real Betis kick off?
Alaves vs Real Betis kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Real Betis?
Alaves 0 - 1 Real Betis.
Where is Alaves vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Real Betis part of?
Alaves vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 25% chance of winning, Real Betis a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Alaves and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Betis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alaves and Real Betis in?
Alaves (all comps): 1W-0D-6L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 0.29 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Real Betis (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.69) and Real Betis's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
25%
4.06
32%
3.17
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.08
1.23
Real Betis xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
7%
13.84
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 15.4 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Alaves and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Alaves and 1.23 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Alaves have picked up 0.43 PPG on a 1W 0D 6L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Betis's form line: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Real Betis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Real Betis are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alaves.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.43 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Real Betis have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.57 PPG overall record — Real Betis travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 0.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves have seen both teams score in 14% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Early Season
Real Betis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 1W 0D 6L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Real Betis away?
Real Betis's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.00 PPG; Real Betis away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alaves and Real Betis runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2022, when Real Betis won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alaves's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alaves
3
Draws
3
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Betis?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Real Betis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Alaves 2-1 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Alaves 0% BTTS, Real Betis 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Alaves and 67% for Real Betis.
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 67% of games; Real Betis in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Real Betis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Alaves's recent matches and 67% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Alaves's recent games and 67% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Real Betis tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Betis edge out Alaves 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Alaves 0-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.85 xG and Real Betis 1.23 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alaves fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.69 / defence 1.28 against Real Betis attack 1.04 / defence 1.22, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 25% | Draw 32% | Real Betis 44%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 29%, Real Betis 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 71% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Betis's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Real Betis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.