Alaves 1-0 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rayo Vallecano make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 April 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Alaves (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Alaves at Estadio de Mendizorroza this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio de Mendizorroza than their overall form suggests.
Rayo Vallecano have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Rayo Vallecano away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Alaves against 0.30 for Rayo Vallecano. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Alaves, 1 for Rayo Vallecano and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Rayo Vallecano winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Rayo Vallecano — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 43% versus Rayo Vallecano 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 43% | Rayo Vallecano 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.25 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.770 / defence 1.197 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.718 / defence 1.424. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.052. Alaves's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rayo Vallecano bring a strong defensive rating of 1.424 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Alaves games / 30 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 44% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 26%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Rayo Vallecano 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 60% | Rayo Vallecano 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 44% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Alaves 1.25 / Rayo Vallecano 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.770 / def 1.197 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.718 / def 1.424 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Alaves (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Rayo Vallecano xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Alaves 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 44% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Alaves and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (1 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 0 | Rayo Vallecano 1W.
What form are Alaves and Rayo Vallecano in?
Alaves (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alaves's attack at 0.77x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayo Vallecano's attack (0.72x) against Alaves's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 31/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.34
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.15
0.91
Rayo Vallecano xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
8%
13.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Alaves and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Alaves and 0.91 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves's recent record stands at 5W 7D 18L from 30 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 14L across 30 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.73 PPG for Alaves against 1.13 for Rayo Vallecano. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 4W 4D 6L from 14 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rayo Vallecano's away record stands at 1W 3D 10L across 14 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayo Vallecano's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.07 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 30 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Rayo Vallecano
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 5W 7D 18L in their last 30 games (0.73 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Alaves's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.14 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Rayo Vallecano have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rayo Vallecano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alaves
0
Draws
6
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Rayo Vallecano have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Alaves 1-2 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano?
Rayo Vallecano have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 43%, Rayo Vallecano 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Alaves) and 43% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 43% of games; Rayo Vallecano in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Alaves's recent matches and 50% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Alaves's recent games and 43% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Rayo Vallecano 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Rayo Vallecano 1-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.25 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.91 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rayo Vallecano landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.77 / defence 1.20 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.72 / defence 1.42, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 44% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 26%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 43%, Rayo Vallecano 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 0.73 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.