Alaves vs Levante – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 35 as Alaves welcome Levante to Estadio Mendizorrotza. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alaves's home record at Estadio Mendizorrotza: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Levante have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Alaves) versus 1.40 (Levante). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Alaves, 2 for Levante and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Levante winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Alaves in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Levante in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 59% versus Levante 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 48% | Levante 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.92 xG and Levante 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 1.109 / defence 0.922 | Levante attack 0.661 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.251. Data: 45 Alaves games / 44 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 64% | Draw 23% | Levante 13%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 1.56 | Draw 4.35 | Levante 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Alaves (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alaves as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 60% | Levante 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 64% | Draw 23% | Levante 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 46% | xG Alaves 1.92 / Levante 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 1.109 / def 0.922 | Levante attack 0.661 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Alaves (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Levante xG
46%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Levante kick off?
Alaves vs Levante is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Where is Alaves vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What competition is Alaves vs Levante part of?
Alaves vs Levante is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 64% chance of winning, Levante a 13% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Alaves and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Levante?
Record (4 meetings): Alaves 2W | Draws 0 | Levante 2W.
What form are Alaves and Levante in?
Alaves (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Levante (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alaves's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Levante's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
64%
1.56
23%
4.43
13%
7.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.69
0.76
Levante xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
7.46
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
2%
51.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Alaves and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Alaves and 0.76 for Levante, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alaves come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 12D 19L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Levante sit at 1.07 PPG from 44 outings (12W 11D 21L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alaves on 1.16 PPG, Levante on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alaves's home form reads 9W 6D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Levante have taken 0.82 points per game from 22 outings (4W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.25 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 44 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Early Season
Levante
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Levante in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Levante have gone 12W 11D 21L in their last 44 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Levante away?
Alaves's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.50 PPG; Levante away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alaves and Levante runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Alaves's record when hosting Levante specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Alaves
0
Draws
2
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Levante have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Levante 2-0 Alaves.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 64%, Levante 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Alaves) and 46% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Levante in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Alaves's recent matches and 41% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Alaves's recent games and 46% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Levante tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Levante in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.