Alaves 2-3 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Granada CF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Granada CF at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Alaves's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estadio de Mendizorroza this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio de Mendizorroza than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Granada CF stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Granada CF away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Alaves) versus 0.30 (Granada CF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Alaves have won 0, Granada CF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Granada CF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Alaves in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Granada CF in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 43% versus Granada CF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 43% | Granada CF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.09 xG and Granada CF 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.682 / defence 1.010 | Granada CF attack 0.728 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.108. Alaves's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.377 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Alaves games / 28 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 40% | Draw 34% | Granada CF 26%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Granada CF 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 50% | Granada CF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 40% | Draw 34% | Granada CF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Alaves 1.09 / Granada CF 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.682 / def 1.010 | Granada CF attack 0.728 / def 1.377 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Alaves (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Granada CF xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Granada CF kick off?
Alaves vs Granada CF kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Granada CF?
Alaves 2 - 3 Granada CF.
Where is Alaves vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Granada CF part of?
Alaves vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 40% chance of winning, Granada CF a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Alaves and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Granada CF?
Record (1 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 0 | Granada CF 1W.
What form are Alaves and Granada CF in?
Alaves (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Granada CF (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alaves's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
40%
2.49
34%
2.94
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Alaves xG
Total xG
1.90
0.81
Granada CF xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
9%
11.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Alaves and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Alaves and 0.81 for Granada CF, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alaves come into this having played 28 games, going 5W 7D 16L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Granada CF sit at 0.89 PPG from 28 outings (5W 10D 13L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alaves on 0.79 PPG, Granada CF on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alaves's home form reads 4W 4D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Granada CF have taken 0.64 points per game from 14 outings (1W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.00 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 28 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Granada CF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 5W 7D 16L in their last 28 games (0.79 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 5W 10D 13L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Granada CF away?
Alaves's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.14 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alaves and Granada CF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Alaves's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Alaves
0
Draws
3
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Alaves have won 1, Granada CF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2024, when Granada CF 2-0 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Granada CF?
Granada CF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 43%, Granada CF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Alaves and 36% for Granada CF.
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 43% of games; Granada CF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Alaves's recent matches and 43% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Alaves's recent games and 36% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Granada CF tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Granada CF defy the odds to beat Alaves 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Granada CF beat Alaves 2-3 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.09 xG and Granada CF 0.81 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Alaves beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Granada CF outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.68 / defence 1.01 against Granada CF attack 0.73 / defence 1.38, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 40% | Draw 34% | Granada CF 26%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Granada CF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 43%, Granada CF 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Granada CF's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 0.79 PPG, Granada CF 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Granada CF win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Granada CF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.