Alaves 2-1 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Espanyol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alaves and Espanyol meet at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Alaves (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Alaves at Estadio de Mendizorroza this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio de Mendizorroza than their overall form suggests.
Espanyol have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Espanyol have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Alaves have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Espanyol in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Alaves 0W, Espanyol 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Espanyol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Espanyol half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 46% versus Espanyol 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 49% | Espanyol 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.53 xG and Espanyol 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.889 / defence 1.079 | Espanyol attack 0.727 / defence 1.600. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.114. Espanyol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.600 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Alaves games / 35 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 52% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 21%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Espanyol 4.76. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Alaves 60% | Espanyol 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 52% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Alaves 1.53 / Espanyol 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.889 / def 1.079 | Espanyol attack 0.727 / def 1.600 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Alaves (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Espanyol xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Espanyol kick off?
Alaves vs Espanyol kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Espanyol?
Alaves 2 - 1 Espanyol.
Where is Alaves vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Espanyol part of?
Alaves vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 52% chance of winning, Espanyol a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Alaves and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Espanyol?
Record (1 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 0 | Espanyol 1W.
What form are Alaves and Espanyol in?
Alaves (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Espanyol (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.89) and Espanyol's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Espanyol's attack (0.73x) against Alaves's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.68
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.41
0.87
Espanyol xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
4%
22.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Alaves and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Alaves and 0.87 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Alaves have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 7W 7D 21L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Espanyol's form line: 10W 10D 15L from 35 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Alaves against 1.14 for Espanyol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Espanyol have gone 1W 5D 11L from 17 away games — 0.47 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Espanyol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 1.09 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 35 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Espanyol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 7W 7D 21L in their last 35 games (0.80 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 10W 10D 15L in their last 35 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Espanyol away?
Alaves's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.29 PPG; Espanyol away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Alaves have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Espanyol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Alaves
0
Draws
3
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Espanyol?
From 6 meetings on record, Alaves have won 3, Espanyol have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Espanyol 1-2 Alaves.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Espanyol see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 47%, Espanyol 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Alaves) and 59% (Espanyol).
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 35% of games; Espanyol in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Espanyol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Alaves's recent matches and 59% of Espanyol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Espanyol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Alaves's recent games and 59% of Espanyol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Espanyol 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Espanyol 2-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.53 xG and Espanyol 0.87 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against Espanyol attack 0.73 / defence 1.60, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 52% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 21%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 49%, Espanyol 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Espanyol's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 0.80 PPG, Espanyol 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.