Alaves 0-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alaves and Cadiz meet at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Alaves (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alaves have posted 4W 4D 2L at Estadio de Mendizorroza — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio de Mendizorroza than their overall form suggests.
Cadiz have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cadiz's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Alaves against 1.20 for Cadiz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Alaves, 0 for Cadiz and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Alaves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cadiz — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 49% versus Cadiz 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 51% | Cadiz 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.18 xG and Cadiz 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.913 / defence 1.080 | Cadiz attack 0.660 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.104. Data: 37 Alaves games / 37 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 44% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 23%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Cadiz 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 60% | Cadiz 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 44% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Alaves 1.18 / Cadiz 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.913 / def 1.080 | Cadiz attack 0.660 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Alaves (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Cadiz xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Cadiz kick off?
Alaves vs Cadiz kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Cadiz?
Alaves 0 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Alaves vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Cadiz part of?
Alaves vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 44% chance of winning, Cadiz a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Alaves and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Cadiz?
Record (1 meetings): Alaves 1W | Draws 0 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Alaves and Cadiz in?
Alaves (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Cadiz (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.91) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.66x) against Alaves's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
44%
2.30
34%
2.98
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Alaves xG
Total xG
1.97
0.79
Cadiz xG
2.30
44%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
7%
14.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Alaves and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Alaves and 0.79 for Cadiz, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves's recent record stands at 8W 7D 22L from 37 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 7W 15D 15L across 37 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Alaves against 0.97 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 7W 4D 7L from 18 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.84 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cadiz's away record stands at 4W 6D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.92 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 37 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 8W 7D 22L in their last 37 games (0.84 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 7W 15D 15L in their last 37 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Cadiz away?
Alaves's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.39 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Alaves or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Cadiz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Alaves
0
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Cadiz?
From 4 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Cadiz have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2024, when Alaves 1-0 Cadiz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 50%, Cadiz 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Alaves) and 44% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Cadiz in 33%; Alaves have failed to score in 33% of games; Cadiz in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Alaves's recent matches and 44% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Alaves's recent games and 44% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Cadiz tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cadiz defy the odds to beat Alaves 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Alaves 0-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.18 xG and Cadiz 0.79 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alaves fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Cadiz attack 0.66 / defence 1.18, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 44% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 23%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Cadiz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 51%, Cadiz 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cadiz's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 0.84 PPG, Cadiz 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cadiz win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.