Alaves 0-0 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Athletic Club at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Athletic Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Athletic Club at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Alaves — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Estadio de Mendizorroza this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all La Liga games this season, Athletic Club have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Athletic Club have gone 2W 7D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alaves 1.00 PPG, Athletic Club 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Alaves, 1 for Athletic Club and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Athletic Club winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Alaves trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Athletic Club trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 47% versus Athletic Club 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 37% | Athletic Club 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.70 xG and Athletic Club 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.759 / defence 1.199 | Athletic Club attack 0.757 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.101. Alaves's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Alaves games / 20 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 23% | Draw 36% | Athletic Club 40%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 4.35 | Draw 2.78 | Athletic Club 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Alaves's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Athletic Club at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Athletic Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.69 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 50% | Athletic Club 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 23% | Draw 36% | Athletic Club 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Alaves 0.70 / Athletic Club 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.759 / def 1.199 | Athletic Club attack 0.757 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Athletic Club xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Athletic Club kick off?
Alaves vs Athletic Club kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Athletic Club?
Alaves 0 - 0 Athletic Club.
Where is Alaves vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Athletic Club part of?
Alaves vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 23% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 40% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Alaves and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Athletic Club?
Record (1 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 0 | Athletic Club 1W.
What form are Alaves and Athletic Club in?
Alaves (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Athletic Club (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.76) and Athletic Club's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Athletic Club's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
23%
4.28
36%
2.74
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Alaves xG
Total xG
1.69
1.00
Athletic Club xG
4.28
23%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.63
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.4 | 18.3 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.0%.
How many goals are Alaves and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Alaves and 1.00 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alaves's recent record stands at 4W 4D 11L from 19 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Athletic Club, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 5L across 19 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Athletic Club by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alaves heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 3W 2D 4L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Athletic Club's away record stands at 2W 6D 1L across 9 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.05 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Last 19 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 6W 8D 5L in their last 19 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Athletic Club away?
Athletic Club's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.22 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Alaves or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alaves and Athletic Club runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Alaves's record when hosting Athletic Club specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Alaves
2
Draws
5
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Athletic Club?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 1, Athletic Club have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Alaves 2-4 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 44%, Athletic Club 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Alaves and 11% for Athletic Club.
On the defensive side: Athletic Club in 44%; Alaves have failed to score in 33% of games; Athletic Club in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Athletic Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Alaves's recent matches and 44% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Alaves's recent games and 11% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Athletic Club tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Athletic Club in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Alaves's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 20, as Alaves and Athletic Club drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.70 xG and Athletic Club 1.00 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Athletic Club landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.76 / defence 1.20 against Athletic Club attack 0.76 / defence 0.84, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 23% | Draw 36% | Athletic Club 40%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 37%, Athletic Club 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Athletic Club's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.