FC Seoul 1-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Seoul at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Seoul host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 July 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Seoul, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Seoul's home record at Seoul World Cup Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Seoul World Cup Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, FC Seoul have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, FC Seoul have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2026, ended 4–1 with FC Seoul winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 60% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 53% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.51 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.209 / defence 0.702 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.995 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.253. FC Seoul's defence rating of 0.702 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 FC Seoul games / 52 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 49% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 19%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 5.26. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Seoul 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 49% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Seoul 1.51 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.209 / def 0.702 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.995 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 26 July 2026 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
FC Seoul 1 - 3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 49% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (9 meetings): FC Seoul 3W | Draws 4 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W.
What form are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Seoul's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
49%
2.02
31%
3.19
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.39
0.88
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
4%
23.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for FC Seoul and 0.88 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Seoul's recent record stands at 25W 16D 16L from 57 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC Seoul is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 23L across 57 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Seoul on 1.60 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Seoul have managed 12W 8D 8L from 28 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 8W 9D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Seoul are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.21 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 57 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 25W 16D 16L in their last 57 games (1.60 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 19W 15D 23L in their last 57 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.57 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.18 PPG.
Have FC Seoul or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Seoul have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Seoul won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Seoul
4
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FC Seoul 1-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 61%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (FC Seoul) and 39% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: FC Seoul keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FC Seoul's games and 61% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of FC Seoul's recent games and 39% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Seoul.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat FC Seoul 1-3 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.51 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.88 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.21 / defence 0.70 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.14, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 49% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 19%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Ulsan Hyundai FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 53%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.60 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.