Damac 1-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Friday 17 September 2021 at 16:45 UTC.
Form
Damac (all games): 2W 1D 1L across 4 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.75 PPG. Last five: L W D W. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.75. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Damac. A 0.75 PPG lead over Al Shabab (1.75 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 50% versus Al Shabab 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Damac 25% | Al Shabab 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.66 xG and Al Shabab 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.994 / defence 0.937 | Al Shabab attack 0.746 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.017. Al Shabab bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Damac's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Damac games / 4 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 57% | Draw 31% | Al Shabab 12%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.75 | Draw 3.23 | Al Shabab 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Damac (57%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Damac 50% | Al Shabab 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 57% | Draw 31% | Al Shabab 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Damac 1.66 / Al Shabab 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.994 / def 0.937 | Al Shabab attack 0.746 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.017 • Poisson stance: Damac (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Al Shabab xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Shabab kick off?
Damac vs Al Shabab kicked off at 16:45 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Shabab?
Damac 1 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Damac vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Shabab part of?
Damac vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 57% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 12% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Damac and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Shabab?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Damac and Al Shabab in?
Damac (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-D-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Damac's attack rating (0.99) and Al Shabab's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.75x) against Damac's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
57%
1.76
31%
3.26
12%
8.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Damac xG
Total xG
2.37
0.71
Al Shabab xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
8.05
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
2%
42.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 11.0 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Damac and 0.71 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Shabab?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 1D 1L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Damac carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.50 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Damac have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have Damac or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 1-4 on 31 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
3
Draws
6
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al Shabab have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Damac 1-3 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 50%, Al Shabab 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Damac) and 50% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Damac's recent matches and 50% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Damac's recent games and 50% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Damac and Al Shabab drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.66 xG and Al Shabab 0.71 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against Al Shabab attack 0.75 / defence 1.28, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 57% | Draw 31% | Al Shabab 12%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 25%, Al Shabab 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Shabab's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.