Damac 0-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Damac face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Al-Nassr travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Damac. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 February 2023, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Nassr — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Al-Nassr have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Damac's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Al-Nassr winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Damac trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Al-Nassr trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 57% versus Al-Nassr 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 45% | Al-Nassr 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 0.89 xG and Al-Nassr 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.909 / defence 0.911 | Al-Nassr attack 1.467 / defence 0.678. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.133. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.678 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.467 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Damac games / 47 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 22% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 51%. Fair-value odds: Damac 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Nassr 1.96. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Damac 60% | Al-Nassr 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 22% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Damac 0.89 / Al-Nassr 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.909 / def 0.911 | Al-Nassr attack 1.467 / def 0.678 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Al-Nassr xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Damac vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Damac 0 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Damac vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Nassr part of?
Damac vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 22% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Damac and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Nassr?
Record (3 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 3W.
What form are Damac and Al-Nassr in?
Damac (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Damac's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
22%
4.61
27%
3.71
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Damac xG
Total xG
2.41
1.51
Al-Nassr xG
4.61
22%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
5%
20.97
21%
4.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.7 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Damac and 1.51 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Damac come into this having played 47 games, going 17W 15D 15L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.15 PPG from 47 outings (31W 8D 8L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Damac's home form reads 10W 9D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.00 points per game from 23 outings (14W 4D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.00 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 17W 15D 15L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 31W 8D 8L in their last 47 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.70 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Nassr have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2021, when Al-Nassr won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Damac
0
Draws
10
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Nassr 4-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 56%, Al-Nassr 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Damac) and 61% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Damac's recent matches and 44% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Damac's recent games and 61% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Damac 0-3 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 0.89 xG and Al-Nassr 1.51 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Damac fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.91 / defence 0.91 against Al-Nassr attack 1.47 / defence 0.68, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 22% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 51%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 45%, Al-Nassr 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.