Damac 2-4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 17:10 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Damac have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Damac have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Damac have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Damac lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 50% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 38% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.08 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.967 / defence 1.116 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.066 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.171. Data: 25 Damac games / 24 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 29% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Damac 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 17:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 29% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Damac 1.08 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.967 / def 1.116 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.066 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 17:10 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Damac 2 - 4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 29% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (1 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W.
What form are Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Damac (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.97x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.07x) against Damac's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 25/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
29%
3.43
27%
3.74
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Damac xG
Total xG
2.47
1.39
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
7%
13.81
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Damac and 1.39 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac's recent record stands at 12W 6D 6L from 24 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 3L across 24 games — 2.04 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Damac against 2.04 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Damac have managed 6W 4D 1L from 11 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 5W 5D 1L across 11 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 1.96 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 12W 6D 6L in their last 24 games (1.75 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 14W 7D 3L in their last 24 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Damac's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Damac
3
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 54%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Damac and 46% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Damac's games and 64% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Damac's recent games and 46% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Damac 2-4 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.08 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.39 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Damac beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.39 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.97 / defence 1.12 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.93, drawn from 25/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 29% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 38%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.75 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.