Damac 1-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Damac welcome Al-Hazm to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 October 2021 at 16:20 UTC.
Form Guide
Damac — All Games: 4W 3D 1L from 8 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.88 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 2W 4D 2L from 8 outings — 1.25 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm away from home this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
On current form, Damac have the edge — a 0.63 PPG advantage (1.88 vs 1.25) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Damac in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 62% versus Al-Hazm 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Damac 25% | Al-Hazm 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.25 xG and Al-Hazm 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.972 / defence 0.942 | Al-Hazm attack 0.665 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.178. Data: 8 Damac games / 8 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 45% | Draw 36% | Al-Hazm 19%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.22 | Draw 2.78 | Al-Hazm 5.26. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Damac are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Damac 50% | Al-Hazm 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 16:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 45% | Draw 36% | Al-Hazm 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Damac 1.25 / Al-Hazm 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.972 / def 0.942 | Al-Hazm attack 0.665 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Damac (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Al-Hazm xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Damac vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 16:20 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Hazm?
Damac 1 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Damac vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Hazm part of?
Damac vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 45% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 19% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Damac and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Hazm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Damac and Al-Hazm in?
Damac (all comps): 4W-3D-1L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-4D-2L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.97x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
45%
2.21
36%
2.77
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Damac xG
Total xG
1.99
0.74
Al-Hazm xG
2.21
45%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
5%
18.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Damac and 0.74 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Damac come into this having played 8 games, going 4W 3D 1L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hazm sit at 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (2W 4D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Damac's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hazm have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.12 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Damac have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Al-Hazm in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Hazm away?
Damac's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.67 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Damac and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2023, when Damac won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Damac
2
Draws
1
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Damac have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Hazm?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Damac 67% BTTS, Al-Hazm 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Damac and 0% for Al-Hazm.
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 33%; Al-Hazm in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Damac's recent matches and 0% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Damac's recent games and 0% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Damac edge out Al-Hazm 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Hazm 1-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.25 xG and Al-Hazm 0.74 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against Al-Hazm attack 0.67 / defence 1.12, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 45% | Draw 36% | Al-Hazm 19%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 25%, Al-Hazm 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.