Damac 1-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al-Fayha meet at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Damac (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 0L across 5 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Damac against 1.70 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Damac — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 40% versus Al-Fayha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Damac 10% | Al-Fayha 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.37 xG and Al-Fayha 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.944 / defence 0.947 | Al-Fayha attack 0.853 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.015. Al-Fayha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Damac's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Damac games / 10 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 50% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 22%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fayha 4.55. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Damac 40% | Al-Fayha 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 50% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Damac 1.37 / Al-Fayha 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.944 / def 0.947 | Al-Fayha attack 0.853 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Damac (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Al-Fayha xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Damac vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Damac 1 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Damac vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Fayha part of?
Damac vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 50% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Damac and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fayha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Damac and Al-Fayha in?
Damac (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Damac's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.85x) against Damac's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 11/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
50%
2.01
28%
3.61
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Damac xG
Total xG
2.19
0.82
Al-Fayha xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
6%
17.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Damac and 0.82 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac's recent record stands at 6W 3D 1L from 10 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 3L across 10 games — 1.70 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Damac by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Damac have managed 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.20 scored and 0.90 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Damac have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Al-Fayha in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 games (2.10 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Fayha away?
Damac's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 2.20 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Damac won 3-0 on 15 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Damac
5
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Damac 3-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Fayha?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 40%, Al-Fayha 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Damac and 60% for Al-Fayha.
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Damac's games and 80% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Damac's recent games and 60% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Damac edge out Al-Fayha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Fayha 1-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.37 xG and Al-Fayha 0.82 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fayha landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against Al-Fayha attack 0.85 / defence 1.30, drawn from 11/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 50% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 22%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 10%, Al-Fayha 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.70. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.