Damac 2-0 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Damac at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al-Faisaly FC meet at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 16:50 UTC.
Current Form
Damac's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Faisaly FC (all games): 1W 1D 1L across 3 Pro League outings this term — 1.33 points per game. Last five: D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.33 vs 1.33 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Damac have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Al-Faisaly FC in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Damac — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Damac 67% and Al-Faisaly FC 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.28 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.905 / defence 1.037 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.847 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.055. Data: 3 Damac games / 3 Al-Faisaly FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Damac 41% | Draw 36% | Al-Faisaly FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.44 | Draw 2.78 | Al-Faisaly FC 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Damac 67% | Al-Faisaly FC 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 16:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 41% | Draw 36% | Al-Faisaly FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Damac 1.28 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.905 / def 1.037 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.847 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Damac (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al-Faisaly FC xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Damac vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 16:50 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Damac 2 - 0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Damac vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Damac vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 41% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Damac and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Faisaly FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Damac and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Damac (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-D. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.91x the league average against Al-Faisaly FC's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Faisaly FC's attack (0.85x) against Damac's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
41%
2.46
36%
2.75
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Damac xG
Total xG
2.20
0.93
Al-Faisaly FC xG
2.46
41%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
6%
15.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Damac and 0.93 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Damac have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Faisaly FC's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Damac against 1.33 for Al-Faisaly FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Damac are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al-Faisaly FC in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Early Season
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Damac or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Damac
0
Draws
1
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 3-0 Damac.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Damac, 100% for Al-Faisaly FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Damac) and 67% (Al-Faisaly FC).
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Faisaly FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Damac's games and 100% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Damac's recent games and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Faisaly FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Faisaly FC 2-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.28 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Faisaly FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Damac 41% | Draw 36% | Al-Faisaly FC 23%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 33%, Al-Faisaly FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.33 PPG, Al-Faisaly FC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Faisaly FC managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.