Damac 1-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Thursday 17 March 2022 at 14:55 UTC.
Form
Damac (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Damac are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Damac's favour (1.30 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Damac 1W, Al-Ettifaq 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Damac winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 52% versus Al-Ettifaq 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 39% | Al-Ettifaq 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.69 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.024 / defence 1.265 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.809 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.140. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.415 — this is suppressing Damac's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Damac games / 23 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 50% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 26%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ettifaq 3.85. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Damac are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 60% | Al-Ettifaq 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Mar 2022, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 50% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Damac 1.69 / Al-Ettifaq 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.024 / def 1.265 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.809 / def 1.415 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Damac (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Al-Ettifaq xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Damac vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 14:55 on Thursday 17 March 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Damac 1 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Damac vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 50% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Damac and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (1 meetings): Damac 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Damac and Al-Ettifaq in?
Damac (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Damac's attack rating (1.02) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.81x) against Damac's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
50%
2.02
24%
4.16
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Damac xG
Total xG
2.85
1.17
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
5%
20.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Damac and 1.17 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Damac come into this having played 23 games, going 11W 6D 6L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.04 PPG from 23 outings (5W 9D 9L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Damac's home form reads 6W 4D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 0.91 points per game from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Damac are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.22 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 11W 6D 6L in their last 23 games (1.70 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 9D 9L in their last 23 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Damac's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ettifaq go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 15 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Damac
2
Draws
6
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 54%, Al-Ettifaq 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (Damac) and 64% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Damac's recent matches and 54% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Damac's recent games and 64% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Damac edge out Al-Ettifaq 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.69 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.17 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.02 / defence 1.26 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.81 / defence 1.42, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 50% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 26%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 39%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.