Damac 1-1 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al Baten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al Baten in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 25 December 2021 at 11:40 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Damac have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Damac have gone 4W 2D 0L this season (6 games, 2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
Al Baten's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Baten have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Damac's favour (2.10 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Al Baten goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 46% versus Al Baten 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Damac 23% | Al Baten 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.17 xG and Al Baten 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.943 / defence 0.939 | Al Baten attack 0.681 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.020. Data: 13 Damac games / 13 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 48% | Draw 31% | Al Baten 20%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Al Baten 5.00. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Al Baten's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Damac are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Damac 33% | Al Baten 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Dec 2021, 11:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 48% | Draw 31% | Al Baten 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 33% | xG Damac 1.17 / Al Baten 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.943 / def 0.939 | Al Baten attack 0.681 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Damac (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Al Baten xG
33%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Baten kick off?
Damac vs Al Baten kicked off at 11:40 on Saturday 25 December 2021 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Baten?
Damac 1 - 1 Al Baten.
Where is Damac vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Baten part of?
Damac vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 48% chance of winning, Al Baten a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Damac and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Baten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Damac and Al Baten in?
Damac (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Al Baten (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.94x the league average against Al Baten's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.68x) against Damac's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.3%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
48%
2.07
31%
3.18
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Damac xG
Total xG
1.82
0.65
Al Baten xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
6%
15.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 10.5 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Damac and 0.65 for Al Baten, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Damac come into this having played 13 games, going 7W 4D 2L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Baten sit at 1.00 PPG from 13 outings (3W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Al Baten — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Damac's home form reads 4W 2D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Damac are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Baten have taken 0.33 points per game from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Baten's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Damac are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.77 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Damac have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 games (1.92 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Baten away?
Damac's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 2.33 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Damac or Al Baten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Al Baten in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Baten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Damac
2
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al Baten have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2023, when Damac 1-0 Al Baten.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Damac see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Damac) and 33% (Al Baten) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Damac and 33% for Al Baten.
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al Baten in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Damac's recent matches and 33% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Damac's recent games and 33% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Damac and Al Baten share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac and Al Baten finished level at 1-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.17 xG and Al Baten 0.65 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Al Baten attack 0.68 / defence 1.13, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 48% | Draw 31% | Al Baten 20%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 23%, Al Baten 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Baten's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.