Al Wehda Club 0-2 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Wehda Club host Damac at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 3 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Al Wehda Club have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al Wehda Club are significantly better at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Damac — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Damac have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Al Wehda Club) versus 0.80 (Damac). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Wehda Club, 0 for Damac and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al Wehda Club trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Damac trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 42% versus Damac 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 33% | Damac 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.42 xG and Damac 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.852 / defence 1.192 | Damac attack 0.898 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.239. Data: 24 Al Wehda Club games / 54 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 39% | Draw 26% | Damac 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Damac 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wehda Club as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wehda Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 50% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 39% | Draw 26% | Damac 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.42 / Damac 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.852 / def 1.192 | Damac attack 0.898 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Damac xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Damac kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Damac kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Damac?
Al Wehda Club 0 - 2 Damac.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Damac part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Damac is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 39% chance of winning, Damac a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Damac?
Record (1 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 1 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Damac in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Damac (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Wehda Club's attack at 0.85x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
39%
2.54
26%
3.88
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
2.75
1.33
Damac xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
8%
11.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.33 for Damac, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Wehda Club come into this having played 24 games, going 5W 8D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (7W 8D 9L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Wehda Club on 0.96 PPG, Damac on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Wehda Club's home form reads 4W 5D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Al Wehda Club are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Damac have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wehda Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wehda Club are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 5W 8D 11L in their last 24 games (0.96 PPG), while Damac have gone 7W 8D 9L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Damac away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.42 PPG; Damac away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Wehda Club
1
Draws
3
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Damac?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 2, Damac have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2025, when Damac 0-1 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 50%, Damac 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al Wehda Club) and 58% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 58% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 58% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Damac tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Damac in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Wehda Club 0-2 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.42 xG and Damac 1.33 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Wehda Club fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.85 / defence 1.19 against Damac attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 39% | Draw 26% | Damac 35%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Damac win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 33%, Damac 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Damac's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 0.96 PPG, Damac 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Damac (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.