Al Wehda Club 2-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Al Wehda Club welcome Al Shabab to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 5 January 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al Wehda Club are significantly better at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Shabab — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al Shabab's 2.50 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Al Wehda Club's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 70% of games.
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 70% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Wehda Club 10% | Al Shabab 30%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Wehda Club 10% | Al Shabab 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.10 xG and Al Shabab 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.702 / defence 0.895 | Al Shabab attack 1.100 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.154. Al Wehda Club's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Al Wehda Club games / 40 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 35% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Al Shabab 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Wehda Club 25% | Al Shabab 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Jan 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 35% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.10 / Al Shabab 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.702 / def 0.895 | Al Shabab attack 1.100 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al Shabab xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 5 January 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab?
Al Wehda Club 2 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 35% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Wehda Club's attack at 0.70x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
35%
2.89
29%
3.47
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
2.24
1.14
Al Shabab xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.14 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Al Wehda Club have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 2W 3D 5L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games, 2.50 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 1.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Wehda Club.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Wehda Club have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Al Wehda Club are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Shabab's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wehda Club are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 2.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Al Shabab's attacking output running into Al Wehda Club's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 10% of their recent games; Al Shabab in 30%.
Defensively: Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Al Shabab in 70% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Al Wehda Club or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 70%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al Shabab have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Wehda Club
0
Draws
3
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 3, Al Shabab have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-3 Al Shabab.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wehda Club see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 25%, Al Shabab 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al Wehda Club and 50% for Al Shabab.
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 75% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 50% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Wehda Club defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club beat Al Shabab 2-1 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.10 xG and Al Shabab 1.14 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al Wehda Club beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.70 / defence 0.90 against Al Shabab attack 1.10 / defence 1.16, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 35% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 36%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Al Wehda Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 10%, Al Shabab 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 20%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 10% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Shabab's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 70% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Al Wehda Club winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.