Al Taee 1-3 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taee at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Damac make the trip to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to face Al Taee in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Al Taee (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taee have posted 6W 0D 4L at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al Taee are significantly better at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Damac have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Damac have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Damac, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Damac winning.
It is worth noting that Damac have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Al Taee half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 45% versus Damac 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 57% | Damac 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.69 xG and Damac 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.075 / defence 0.934 | Damac attack 0.901 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.272. Data: 49 Al Taee games / 49 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 52% | Draw 25% | Damac 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Damac 4.17. Al Taee hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taee as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taee if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Al Taee 30% | Damac 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 52% | Draw 25% | Damac 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Taee 1.69 / Damac 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.075 / def 0.934 | Damac attack 0.901 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Damac xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Damac kick off?
Al Taee vs Damac kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Damac?
Al Taee 1 - 3 Damac.
Where is Al Taee vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Damac part of?
Al Taee vs Damac is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 52% chance of winning, Damac a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Taee and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Damac?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taee 0W | Draws 0 | Damac 3W.
What form are Al Taee and Damac in?
Al Taee (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Damac (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Taee's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.90x) against Al Taee's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
52%
1.94
25%
4.07
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.76
1.07
Damac xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
4%
22.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.07 for Damac, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Al Taee have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 19W 5D 25L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac's form line: 17W 15D 17L from 49 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Al Taee against 1.35 for Damac. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Taee have posted 1.62 PPG from 24 outings (12W 3D 9L).
On the road, Damac have gone 7W 6D 11L from 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taee are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.22 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 19W 5D 25L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while Damac have gone 17W 15D 17L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Damac away?
Al Taee's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.62 PPG; Damac away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Damac won 3-0 on 21 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Taee
0
Draws
5
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Damac?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 1, Damac have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2023, when Damac 3-0 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 54%, Damac 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Taee and 58% for Damac. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al Taee's games and 58% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taee vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Taee's matches and 58% of Damac's.
Do Al Taee and Damac tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Damac in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Taee 1-3 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.69 xG and Damac 1.07 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Damac outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.07 / defence 0.93 against Damac attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 52% | Draw 25% | Damac 24%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Damac win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 57%, Damac 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 1.27 PPG, Damac 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taee (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Damac (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.