Al Taee 1-3 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taee at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taee and Al Taawon meet at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 12 January 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taee's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Al Taee have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al Taee are significantly better at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Taawon (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Taawon arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al Taee 1W, Al Taawon 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 43% versus Al Taawon 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 57% | Al Taawon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.88 xG and Al Taawon 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.297 / defence 0.862 | Al Taawon attack 1.118 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.135. Al Taee carry an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Al Taee games / 42 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 56% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 22%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Al Taawon 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al Taee (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taee as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Taawon (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Taee 40% | Al Taawon 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Jan 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 56% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Taee 1.88 / Al Taawon 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.297 / def 0.862 | Al Taawon attack 1.118 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al Taawon xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Taee vs Al Taawon kicked off at 11:30 on Thursday 12 January 2023 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al Taawon?
Al Taee 1 - 3 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Taee vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Taee vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 56% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Taee and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Taawon?
Record (2 meetings): Al Taee 1W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al Taee and Al Taawon in?
Al Taee (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Taee's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.12x) against Al Taee's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
56%
1.80
22%
4.45
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.97
1.09
Al Taawon xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
3%
29.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.09 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al Taawon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taee come into this having played 42 games, going 17W 4D 21L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 1.36 PPG from 42 outings (14W 15D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Al Taee against 1.36 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Taee's home form reads 11W 3D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Al Taee are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 1.40 points per game from 20 outings (7W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taee are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.45 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 67%.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 17W 4D 21L in their last 42 games (1.31 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 14W 15D 13L in their last 42 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taee's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.80 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Al Taawon have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Taee
1
Draws
4
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Taawon?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 1, Al Taawon have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2024, when Al Taee 2-3 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 55%, Al Taawon 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al Taee and 55% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al Taee's games and 70% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taee vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al Taee's matches and 55% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al Taee and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Taee 1-3 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.88 xG and Al Taawon 1.09 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Taee fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al Taawon outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.30 / defence 0.86 against Al Taawon attack 1.12 / defence 1.08, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 56% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 22%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Al Taawon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 57%, Al Taawon 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 1.31 PPG, Al Taawon 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taee (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.