Al Taee 1-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taee and Al Taawon meet at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 February 2022 at 12:10 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taee's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Al Taee have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Taawon (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Taee register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al Taawon in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al Taee 1W, Al Taawon 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Al Taee winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 43% versus Al Taawon 76%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 57% | Al Taawon 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.65 xG and Al Taawon 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.057 / defence 1.403 | Al Taawon attack 1.093 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.201. Al Taawon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Al Taee's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Al Taee games / 21 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 34% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 42%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Al Taawon 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 70% | Al Taawon 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 12:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 34% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Al Taee 1.65 / Al Taawon 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.057 / def 1.403 | Al Taawon attack 1.093 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Al Taawon xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Taee vs Al Taawon kicked off at 12:10 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al Taawon?
Al Taee 1 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Taee vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Taee vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 34% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al Taee and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Taawon?
Record (1 meetings): Al Taee 1W | Draws 0 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al Taee and Al Taawon in?
Al Taee (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Taee's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.09x) against Al Taee's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
34%
2.91
23%
4.29
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al Taee xG
Total xG
3.49
1.84
Al Taawon xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
16%
6.31
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
5%
18.36
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.84 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taee come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 1D 12L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 1.05 PPG from 21 outings (5W 7D 9L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Al Taee against 1.05 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Taee's home form reads 5W 0D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taee are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.62 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 76%.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 8W 1D 12L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 5W 7D 9L in their last 21 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taee's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.50 PPG; Al Taawon away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Al Taawon have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Taee
1
Draws
4
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Taawon?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 1, Al Taawon have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2024, when Al Taee 2-3 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Al Taee, 80% for Al Taawon — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Al Taee and 80% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Taee's games and 80% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taee vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Al Taee's matches and 80% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al Taee and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taee and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee and Al Taawon finished level at 1-1 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.65 xG and Al Taawon 1.84 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Taawon landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.06 / defence 1.40 against Al Taawon attack 1.09 / defence 1.33, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 34% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 42%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 57%, Al Taawon 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 1.19 PPG, Al Taawon 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.