Al Taee 2-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taee vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to face Al Taee in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 18 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taee have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee's home record at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al Taee are significantly better at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Shabab are 0.80 PPG clear of Al Taee in recent Pro League fixtures (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al Taee, 1 for Al Shabab and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Al Shabab winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Taee — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 46% versus Al Shabab 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 54% | Al Shabab 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.67 xG and Al Shabab 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.008 / defence 1.349 | Al Shabab attack 1.117 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.114. Al Shabab bring a strong defensive rating of 1.441 — this is suppressing Al Taee's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Al Taee games / 24 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 38% | Draw 23% | Al Shabab 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | Al Shabab 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 70% | Al Shabab 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 38% | Draw 23% | Al Shabab 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Al Taee 1.67 / Al Shabab 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.008 / def 1.349 | Al Shabab attack 1.117 / def 1.441 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Al Shabab xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Taee vs Al Shabab kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al Shabab?
Al Taee 2 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Taee vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Taee vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 38% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al Taee and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Shabab?
Record (1 meetings): Al Taee 0W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al Taee and Al Shabab in?
Al Taee (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Taee's attack rating (1.01) and Al Shabab's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (1.12x) against Al Taee's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
38%
2.60
23%
4.38
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Al Taee xG
Total xG
3.35
1.68
Al Shabab xG
2.60
38%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
19%
5.36
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
7%
13.93
7%
13.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.68 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Al Taee have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 8W 2D 14L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 13W 7D 4L from 24 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taee.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Taee have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (5W 1D 5L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 5W 3D 3L from 11 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taee are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.83 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 8W 2D 14L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 13W 7D 4L in their last 24 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.45 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Al Taee or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 4-0 on 8 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Taee
2
Draws
4
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Shabab?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 0, Al Shabab have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Al Taee 0-0 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 73%, Al Shabab 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Al Taee and 64% for Al Shabab. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Al Taee's games and 54% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taee vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Al Taee's matches and 64% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al Taee and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taee and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee and Al Shabab finished level at 2-2 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.67 xG and Al Shabab 1.68 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.01 / defence 1.35 against Al Shabab attack 1.12 / defence 1.44, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 38% | Draw 23% | Al Shabab 39%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 54%, Al Shabab 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.