Al Taee 4-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq meet at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 23 September 2021 at 16:45 UTC.
Form
Al Taee (all games): 0W 1D 3L across 4 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L L L D. They are averaging 0.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ettifaq are 0.95 PPG clear of Al Taee in recent Pro League fixtures (1.20 vs 0.25). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Al Taee half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taee 25% and Al-Ettifaq 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 25% | Al-Ettifaq 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.63 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.881 / defence 1.375 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.129 / defence 1.417. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.112. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.417 — this is suppressing Al Taee's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Al Taee games / 5 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 34% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ettifaq 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.36 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 25% | Al-Ettifaq 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 34% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 69% | xG Al Taee 1.63 / Al-Ettifaq 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 0.881 / def 1.375 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.129 / def 1.417 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Al-Ettifaq xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 16:45 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Taee 4 - 2 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 34% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Taee (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-L-L-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-3D-1L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Taee's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.13x) against Al Taee's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 4/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
34%
2.97
29%
3.49
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Al Taee xG
Total xG
3.36
1.73
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
6%
16.69
7%
13.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.73 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taee's recent record stands at 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, a 0.25 PPG return, with L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 1L across 4 games — 0.75 PPG, with D-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ettifaq by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Taee heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taee are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 2.00 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taee have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Al-Ettifaq in 100%.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al Taee
1
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 4, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when Al Taee 1-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taee tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 25%, Al-Ettifaq 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al Taee) and 75% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al Taee have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Al Taee's games and 100% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al Taee's recent games and 75% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taee cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Ettifaq 4-2 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.63 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.73 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al Taee beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 0.88 / defence 1.38 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.13 / defence 1.42, drawn from 4/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 34% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 38%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al Taee win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 25%, Al-Ettifaq 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 0.75 PPG against 0.25. Form was overturned, with Al Taee winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Taee scored 4 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ettifaq shipped 4 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.