Al Taee 0-1 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taee at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taee vs Abha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Al Taee welcome Abha to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 16:20 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taee have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 outings — a 1.17 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Abha stand at 1W 1D 5L from 7 Pro League matches — 0.57 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.57 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.57 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Abha have posted 0W 0D 3L from 3 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 3.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al Taee carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.17 vs 0.57. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Al Taee in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Abha in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taee 50% and Abha 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 50% | Abha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 2.28 xG and Abha 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.167 / defence 1.362 | Abha attack 0.696 / defence 1.697. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.265. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.697 — this is suppressing Al Taee's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Al Taee games / 7 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 59% | Draw 24% | Abha 16%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Abha 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al Taee (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taee are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 50% | Abha 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 16:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 59% | Draw 24% | Abha 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG Al Taee 2.28 / Abha 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.167 / def 1.362 | Abha attack 0.696 / def 1.697 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Abha xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Abha kick off?
Al Taee vs Abha kicked off at 16:20 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Abha?
Al Taee 0 - 1 Abha.
Where is Al Taee vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Abha part of?
Al Taee vs Abha is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 59% chance of winning, Abha a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al Taee and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Abha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taee and Abha in?
Al Taee (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Abha (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.57 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Taee's attack rating (1.17) and Abha's defence rating (1.70), the model arrives at 2.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al Taee's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.09
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Al Taee xG
Total xG
3.48
1.20
Abha xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
10%
9.76
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
2%
59.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.20 for Abha, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Abha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taee come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 1D 3L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Abha sit at 0.17 PPG from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taee carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Abha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Al Taee are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 0.83 scored and 2.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Early Season
Abha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Abha in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Abha have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 (0.17 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taee and Abha runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Taee's record when hosting Abha specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Taee
0
Draws
4
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 2, Abha have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when Abha 2-0 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Abha?
Abha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taee see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Taee at 50%, Abha at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Taee) and 67% (Abha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Abha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Taee's games and 83% of Abha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taee vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Taee's matches and 67% of Abha's.
Do Al Taee and Abha tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Abha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Abha defy the odds to beat Al Taee 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al Taee 0-1 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 2.28 xG and Abha 1.20 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Taee fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.17 / defence 1.36 against Abha attack 0.70 / defence 1.70, drawn from 6/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 59% | Draw 24% | Abha 16%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Abha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 50%, Abha 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Abha's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taee arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.17. Form was overturned, with Abha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Taee managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Abha conceded 0 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.