Al Taawon 3-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City plays host to Al Taawon versus Damac in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 1 January 2022 at 11:25 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 1W 2D 3L at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City — 0.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Damac (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Damac have posted 3W 2D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.57 PPG. They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Damac are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 86% and Damac 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 71% | Damac 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.57 xG and Damac 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.984 / defence 1.392 | Damac attack 1.174 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.126. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Al Taawon games / 14 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 33% | Draw 24% | Damac 44%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Damac 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 83% | Damac 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jan 2022, 11:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 33% | Draw 24% | Damac 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Taawon 1.57 / Damac 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.984 / def 1.392 | Damac attack 1.174 / def 1.400 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Damac (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Damac xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Damac kick off?
Al Taawon vs Damac kicked off at 11:25 on Saturday 1 January 2022 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Damac?
Al Taawon 3 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al Taawon vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Damac part of?
Al Taawon vs Damac is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 33% chance of winning, Damac a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Taawon and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Damac?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taawon and Damac in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Damac (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (0.98) and Damac's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Damac's attack (1.17x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
33%
3.07
24%
4.24
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.41
1.84
Damac xG
3.07
33%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
5%
19.35
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.84 for Damac, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 14 games, going 2W 5D 7L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.86 PPG from 14 outings (7W 5D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 1.83 points per game from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.50 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Defensively: Damac in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 2W 5D 7L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while Damac have gone 7W 5D 2L in their last 14 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Damac away?
Damac's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 0.83 PPG; Damac away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Damac in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 6-1 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
4
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Damac have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Damac 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Damac?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Damac see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Al Taawon, 50% for Damac — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Taawon) and 33% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Damac in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Al Taawon's games and 50% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Taawon's recent games and 33% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Damac tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Damac in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Taawon run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Damac 3-0 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.57 xG and Damac 1.84 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Damac landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.98 / defence 1.39 against Damac attack 1.17 / defence 1.40, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 33% | Draw 24% | Damac 44%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 71%, Damac 21%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Damac's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Al Taawon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.