Al Taawon 1-2 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Al Taawon take on Al Taee.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City to face Al Taawon in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 0.50 PPG across 6 Pro League outings this season: 0W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 games at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City this term (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Taee's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taee have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Al Taawon, 0.80 for Al Taee — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 100% and Al Taee 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 60% | Al Taee 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.19 xG and Al Taee 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.015 / defence 1.585 | Al Taee attack 0.546 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.230. Data: 6 Al Taawon games / 5 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 35% | Draw 37% | Al Taee 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Al Taee 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 100% | Al Taee 0%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 35% | Draw 37% | Al Taee 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Taawon 1.19 / Al Taee 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.015 / def 1.585 | Al Taee attack 0.546 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Al Taee xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Taee kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Taee kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Taee?
Al Taawon 1 - 2 Al Taee.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Taee part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 35% chance of winning, Al Taee a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Taee?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Taee in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Al Taee (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.01) and Al Taee's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.55x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.58x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 6/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.87
37%
2.73
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.25
1.06
Al Taee xG
2.87
35%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.06 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 0.40 PPG on a 0W 2D 3L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taee's form line: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Taee are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
On the road, Al Taee have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al Taee
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 games (0.40 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Taee away?
Al Taawon's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 0.33 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al Taawon have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al Taawon
1
Draws
1
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 4, Al Taee have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2024, when Al Taee 2-3 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Taee?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Taee tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 100%, Al Taee 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Al Taawon and 0% for Al Taee.
On the defensive side: Al Taee in 33%; Al Taee in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 0% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al Taawon's recent games and 0% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taee defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al Taawon 1-2 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.19 xG and Al Taee 1.06 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Taee outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.01 / defence 1.58 against Al Taee attack 0.55 / defence 0.98, drawn from 6/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 35% | Draw 37% | Al Taee 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al Taee win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 60%, Al Taee 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (5 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taee's trading profile (5 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taee arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Taee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.