Al Taawon 3-5 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 40%, yet in-form Al-Raed provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Taawon vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Raed to King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 September 2021 at 16:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taawon — All Games: 0W 2D 2L from 4 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.25 conceded. However, 2.25 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 2W 1D 1L from 4 Pro League matches — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Raed's 1.75 PPG return is 1.25 points per game ahead of Al Taawon's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 100% and Al-Raed 25% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 75% | Al-Raed 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.39 xG and Al-Raed 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.846 / defence 1.239 | Al-Raed attack 0.875 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.017. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Al Taawon games / 4 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 40% | Draw 34% | Al-Raed 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Raed 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Raed (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 100% | Al-Raed 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 40% | Draw 34% | Al-Raed 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Taawon 1.39 / Al-Raed 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.846 / def 1.239 | Al-Raed attack 0.875 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.017 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al-Raed xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Raed kicked off at 16:45 on Friday 17 September 2021 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Al Taawon 3 - 5 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 40% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Raed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Raed in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.25 | L5 D-L-L-D. Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 0.85x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
40%
2.52
34%
2.91
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.49
1.10
Al-Raed xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
6%
15.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.10 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taawon come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 2D 2L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Raed carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Raed in 25%.
Defensively: Al-Raed in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al-Raed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Al Taawon or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al Taawon have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Al Taawon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al Taawon
1
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 6, Al-Raed have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2025, when Al Taawon 4-3 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Raed?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 100%, Al-Raed 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al Taawon and 50% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al Taawon's games and 25% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al Taawon's matches and 50% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al Taawon 3-5 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.39 xG and Al-Raed 1.10 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Raed outscored their 1.10 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.85 / defence 1.24 against Al-Raed attack 0.88 / defence 1.26, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 40% | Draw 34% | Al-Raed 26%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Raed win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 75%, Al-Raed 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Raed arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taawon scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.