Al Taawon 2-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 2W 4D 4L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.80 PPG clear of Al Taawon in recent Pro League fixtures (2.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Ittihad FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al Taawon, 1 for Al-Ittihad FC and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 0–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 70% versus Al-Ittihad FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 0.82 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.826 / defence 1.169 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.439 / defence 0.683. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.251. Al-Ittihad FC's defence strength of 0.683 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.439 — the away xG of 2.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Al Taawon games / 54 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 13% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 67%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 7.69 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Al Taawon 70% | Al-Ittihad FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 13% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Taawon 0.82 / Al-Ittihad FC 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.826 / def 1.169 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.439 / def 0.683 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Al-Ittihad FC xG
49%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Taawon 2 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 13% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 67% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taawon 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad FC 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Taawon's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.44x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 2.10.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
13%
7.52
20%
5.06
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.92
2.10
Al-Ittihad FC xG
7.52
13%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
12%
8.21
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
2%
61.75
30%
3.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Al Taawon and 2.10 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taawon come into this having played 54 games, going 17W 20D 17L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.30 PPG from 54 outings (38W 10D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.99 PPG clear of Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Taawon's home form reads 7W 10D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 2.31 points per game from 26 outings (18W 6D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.02 scored and 0.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 17W 20D 17L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 38W 10D 6L in their last 54 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.19 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.31 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ittihad FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Taawon
4
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al Taawon 0-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 65%, Al-Ittihad FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al Taawon) and 62% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al Taawon's games and 62% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Al Taawon's recent games and 62% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taawon defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 0.82 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.10 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ittihad FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.44 / defence 0.68, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 13% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 67%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Al Taawon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 50%, Al-Ittihad FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Al Taawon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.