Al Taawon 2-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Hazm to King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 January 2022 at 14:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Al Taawon have gone 2W 2D 3L this season (7 games, 1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hazm — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's away record: 1W 1D 5L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al Taawon are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Taawon, 0 for Al-Hazm and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Taawon trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al-Hazm trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 80% versus Al-Hazm 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 73% | Al-Hazm 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.38 xG and Al-Hazm 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.115 / defence 1.207 | Al-Hazm attack 0.598 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.095. Data: 15 Al Taawon games / 15 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 50% | Draw 29% | Al-Hazm 21%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Hazm 4.76. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 71% | Al-Hazm 14% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City • Kick-off: Friday 7 Jan 2022, 14:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 50% | Draw 29% | Al-Hazm 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Al Taawon 1.38 / Al-Hazm 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.115 / def 1.207 | Al-Hazm attack 0.598 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Al-Hazm xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 14:05 on Friday 7 January 2022 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Al Taawon 2 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 50% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm?
Record (1 meetings): Al Taawon 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hazm in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.11) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
50%
1.98
29%
3.49
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.17
0.79
Al-Hazm xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
5%
19.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.4 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.79 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 3W 5D 7L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 2W 5D 8L from 15 games, 0.73 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taawon on 0.93 PPG, Al-Hazm on 0.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.67 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 27%.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 games (0.93 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.14 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2024, when Al Taawon won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Taawon
2
Draws
1
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 71%, Al-Hazm 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al Taawon) and 14% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 14% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al Taawon's recent games and 14% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al-Hazm 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Hazm 2-1 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.38 xG and Al-Hazm 0.79 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.11 / defence 1.21 against Al-Hazm attack 0.60 / defence 1.10, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 50% | Draw 29% | Al-Hazm 21%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 73%, Al-Hazm 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 0.93 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.