Al Taawon 1-3 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Abha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al Taawon welcome Abha to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 11 October 2022 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season.
Abha — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Abha have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Al Taawon are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al Taawon, 0 for Abha and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Abha in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 69% versus Abha 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 47% | Abha 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.50 xG and Abha 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.025 / defence 0.843 | Abha attack 0.724 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.002. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Al Taawon games / 36 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 58% | Draw 27% | Abha 15%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Abha 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 50% | Abha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Oct 2022, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 58% | Draw 27% | Abha 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 36% | xG Al Taawon 1.50 / Abha 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.025 / def 0.843 | Abha attack 0.724 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Abha xG
36%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Abha kick off?
Al Taawon vs Abha kicked off at 16:15 on Tuesday 11 October 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Abha?
Al Taawon 1 - 3 Abha.
Where is Al Taawon vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Abha part of?
Al Taawon vs Abha is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 58% chance of winning, Abha a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Al Taawon and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Abha?
Record (2 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 1 | Abha 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Abha in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Abha (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.02) and Abha's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
58%
1.71
27%
3.72
15%
6.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.11
0.61
Abha xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
6.80
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
3%
30.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 11.1 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.61 for Abha, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Abha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taawon come into this having played 36 games, going 11W 15D 10L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Abha sit at 1.08 PPG from 36 outings (10W 9D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taawon on 1.33 PPG, Abha on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Taawon's home form reads 6W 7D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Abha have taken 0.53 points per game from 17 outings (2W 3D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 0.83 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Early Season
Abha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Abha in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 11W 15D 10L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Abha have gone 10W 9D 17L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Abha away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.47 PPG; Abha away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al Taawon's record when hosting Abha specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Taawon
3
Draws
1
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 2, Abha have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2024, when Abha 1-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Abha?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 59%, Abha 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Al Taawon) and 41% (Abha).
On the defensive side: Abha in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 41% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Al Taawon's recent games and 41% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Abha tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Abha in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Abha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al Taawon 1-3 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.50 xG and Abha 0.61 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Abha outscored their 0.61 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.02 / defence 0.84 against Abha attack 0.72 / defence 1.21, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 58% | Draw 27% | Abha 15%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Abha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 47%, Abha 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Abha's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.33 PPG, Abha 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Abha win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Abha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.