Al Shabab 2-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Shabab and Damac meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 2 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al Shabab are significantly better at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Damac (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Damac have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Al Shabab, 1.40 for Damac — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Shabab, 0 for Damac and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Al Shabab winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 50% versus Damac 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 57% | Damac 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.74 xG and Damac 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.197 / defence 0.662 | Damac attack 1.085 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.112. Al Shabab's defence rating of 0.662 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Al Shabab games / 44 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 59% | Draw 24% | Damac 17%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Damac 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 10% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 59% | Draw 24% | Damac 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Al Shabab 1.74 / Damac 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.197 / def 0.662 | Damac attack 1.085 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Damac xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Damac kick off?
Al Shabab vs Damac kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 2 February 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Damac?
Al Shabab 2 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al Shabab vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Damac part of?
Al Shabab vs Damac is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 59% chance of winning, Damac a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al Shabab and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Damac?
Record (2 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 1 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Damac in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Damac (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.20x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Damac's attack (1.08x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
59%
1.68
24%
4.18
17%
6.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.54
0.80
Damac xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
6.00
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
3%
34.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.80 for Damac, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Damac?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 24W 14D 6L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac's form line: 17W 14D 13L from 44 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Damac.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 2.23 PPG from 22 outings (14W 7D 1L).
On the road, Damac have gone 7W 6D 9L from 22 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.30 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 24W 14D 6L in their last 44 games (1.95 PPG), while Damac have gone 17W 14D 13L in their last 44 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Damac away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.23 PPG; Damac away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Damac in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 1-4 on 31 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al Shabab
3
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 6, Damac have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Damac 1-3 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Damac?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 36%, Damac 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al Shabab) and 59% (Damac). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 59% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al Shabab's matches and 59% of Damac's.
Do Al Shabab and Damac tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Damac in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Damac 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Damac 2-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.74 xG and Damac 0.80 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.20 / defence 0.66 against Damac attack 1.08 / defence 1.04, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 59% | Draw 24% | Damac 17%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 57%, Damac 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.48. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.