Al Shabab 4-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Thursday 8 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al Shabab (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Al Taee have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taee away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Al Shabab against 1.70 for Al Taee. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Shabab, 0 for Al Taee and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Al Taee — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 50% versus Al Taee 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 59% | Al Taee 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.34 xG and Al Taee 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.247 / defence 0.779 | Al Taee attack 0.997 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.039 / away 1.200. Al Shabab's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 32 Al Shabab games / 32 Al Taee games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 46% | Draw 28% | Al Taee 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taee 3.85. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 40% | Al Taee 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 46% | Draw 28% | Al Taee 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Shabab 1.34 / Al Taee 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.247 / def 0.779 | Al Taee attack 0.997 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.039 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al Taee xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Taee kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Taee kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 8 September 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Taee?
Al Shabab 4 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Taee part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 46% chance of winning, Al Taee a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Taee?
Record (2 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 1 | Al Taee 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Taee in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Al Taee (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.25) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (1.00x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.60
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.28
0.93
Al Taee xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
7%
14.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.93 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 17W 10D 5L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taee's form line: 13W 4D 15L from 32 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taee.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 2.19 PPG from 16 outings (10W 5D 1L).
On the road, Al Taee have gone 5W 1D 10L from 16 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Shabab are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.12 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al Taee
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 17W 10D 5L in their last 32 games (1.91 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 13W 4D 15L in their last 32 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Taee away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.19 PPG; Al Taee away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al Taee in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 4-0 on 8 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al Shabab
2
Draws
0
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 4, Al Taee have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Al Taee 0-0 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al Taee?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 44%, Al Taee 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Shabab) and 44% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Taee in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 31% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al Shabab's recent games and 44% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Taee 4-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.34 xG and Al Taee 0.93 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Taee landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.25 / defence 0.78 against Al Taee attack 1.00 / defence 1.04, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 46% | Draw 28% | Al Taee 26%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 59%, Al Taee 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Taee's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. Al Taee (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.