Al Shabab 1-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Raed encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Al-Raed travel to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Shabab. The game is scheduled for Thursday 6 October 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 6W 3D 1L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Raed have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Shabab, 0 for Al-Raed and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Al Shabab winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 49% versus Al-Raed 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 60% | Al-Raed 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.78 xG and Al-Raed 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.378 / defence 0.783 | Al-Raed attack 1.122 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.017. Al Shabab carry an above-average attack strength of 1.378 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Shabab's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Al Shabab games / 35 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 58% | Draw 23% | Al-Raed 19%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Raed 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Shabab 40% | Al-Raed 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 58% | Draw 23% | Al-Raed 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Shabab 1.78 / Al-Raed 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.378 / def 0.783 | Al-Raed attack 1.122 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.017 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al-Raed xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Raed kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 6 October 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Al Shabab 1 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 58% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Raed?
Record (2 meetings): Al Shabab 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Raed in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Raed (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.38) and Al-Raed's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.33
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.67
0.89
Al-Raed xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
3%
31.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.89 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 20W 10D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Raed's form line: 13W 6D 16L from 35 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Raed.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 2.24 PPG from 17 outings (11W 5D 1L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 4W 4D 9L from 17 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.17 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al-Raed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 20W 10D 5L in their last 35 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 13W 6D 16L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Raed away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.24 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al Shabab have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2021, when Al Shabab won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al Shabab
1
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 6, Al-Raed have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Raed?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 41%, Al-Raed 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Al Shabab and 71% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Al-Raed in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 59% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al Shabab's matches and 71% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al-Raed 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Raed 1-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.78 xG and Al-Raed 0.89 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Raed landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.38 / defence 0.78 against Al-Raed attack 1.12 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 58% | Draw 23% | Al-Raed 19%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 60%, Al-Raed 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Raed's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.