Al Shabab 3-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Raed encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Al-Raed travel to King Fahd International Stadium to take on Al Shabab. The game is scheduled for Thursday 25 November 2021, 15:40 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 4W 2D 0L at King Fahd International Stadium — 2.33 PPG. They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Fahd International Stadium.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Raed have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.83 PPG). They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 42% versus Al-Raed 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 50% | Al-Raed 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.17 xG and Al-Raed 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.218 / defence 1.062 | Al-Raed attack 1.175 / defence 1.533. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.072. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.533 — this is suppressing Al Shabab's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Al Shabab games / 12 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 56% | Draw 20% | Al-Raed 23%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Raed 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 50% | Al-Raed 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Nov 2021, 15:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 56% | Draw 20% | Al-Raed 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 65% | xG Al Shabab 2.17 / Al-Raed 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.218 / def 1.062 | Al-Raed attack 1.175 / def 1.533 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Al-Raed xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Raed kicked off at 15:40 on Thursday 25 November 2021 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Al Shabab 3 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 56% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 23% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Raed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Raed in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.22) and Al-Raed's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
56%
1.78
20%
4.88
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.50
1.34
Al-Raed xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
11%
8.71
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
3%
37.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.34 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 6W 4D 2L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed's form line: 5W 3D 4L from 12 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Shabab on 1.83 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 2.33 PPG from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Al Shabab are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Raed's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.67 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 6W 4D 2L in their last 12 games (1.83 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Raed away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al Shabab have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2021, when Al Shabab won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al Shabab
1
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 6, Al-Raed have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Raed?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 50%, Al-Raed 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Shabab and 83% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Raed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Shabab's games and 67% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Shabab's matches and 83% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Raed 3-0 at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 2.17 xG and Al-Raed 1.34 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Raed landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.22 / defence 1.06 against Al-Raed attack 1.18 / defence 1.53, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 56% | Draw 20% | Al-Raed 23%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 50%, Al-Raed 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Raed's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.83 PPG, Al-Raed 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.