Al Shabab 0-0 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 43%, yet in-form Al-Nassr provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Al-Nassr travel to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Shabab. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 January 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's home record at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Nassr are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 2.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Nassr 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 2–4 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Shabab trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Al-Nassr trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 50% versus Al-Nassr 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 60% | Al-Nassr 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.35 xG and Al-Nassr 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.336 / defence 0.701 | Al-Nassr attack 1.285 / defence 0.726. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.198. Al Shabab carry an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — their λ of 1.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.726 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — the away xG of 1.08 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al Shabab's defence rating of 0.701 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Al Shabab games / 42 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Nassr 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Nassr (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 10% | Al-Nassr 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Shabab 1.35 / Al-Nassr 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.336 / def 0.701 | Al-Nassr attack 1.285 / def 0.726 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Al-Nassr xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Al Shabab 0 - 0 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 43% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Nassr?
Record (2 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 1W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Nassr in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.34) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.69
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.43
1.08
Al-Nassr xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
8%
12.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.08 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Shabab come into this having played 42 games, going 23W 12D 7L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.14 PPG from 42 outings (28W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Shabab on 1.93 PPG, Al-Nassr on 2.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Shabab's home form reads 14W 5D 1L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.35 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.93 PPG overall — Al Shabab are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.05 points per game from 20 outings (13W 2D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.02 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al Shabab's scoring rate against Al-Nassr's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Al-Nassr in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 23W 12D 7L in their last 42 games (1.93 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 28W 6D 8L in their last 42 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.35 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Nassr have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2023, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
2
Draws
7
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2026, when Al Shabab 2-4 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 35%, Al-Nassr 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al Shabab) and 60% (Al-Nassr). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 45% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al Shabab's matches and 60% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Shabab's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab and Al-Nassr finished level at 0-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.35 xG and Al-Nassr 1.08 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Shabab fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.34 / defence 0.70 against Al-Nassr attack 1.28 / defence 0.73, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 30%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 60%, Al-Nassr 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.93 PPG, Al-Nassr 2.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.