Al Shabab 1-1 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Abha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Al Shabab welcome Abha to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 January 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Al Shabab have gone 6W 2D 0L this season (8 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.38 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's away record: 1W 1D 5L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Shabab, 1 for Abha and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Abha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Shabab trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Abha trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 47% versus Abha 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 60% | Abha 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.83 xG and Abha 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.346 / defence 0.954 | Abha attack 0.582 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.127. Al Shabab carry an above-average attack strength of 1.346 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Al Shabab's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Al Shabab games / 15 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 66% | Draw 22% | Abha 12%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Abha 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 50% | Abha 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 66% | Draw 22% | Abha 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 39% | xG Al Shabab 1.83 / Abha 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.346 / def 0.954 | Abha attack 0.582 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Abha xG
39%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Abha kick off?
Al Shabab vs Abha kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Abha?
Al Shabab 1 - 1 Abha.
Where is Al Shabab vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Abha part of?
Al Shabab vs Abha is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 66% chance of winning, Abha a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al Shabab and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Abha?
Record (1 meetings): Al Shabab 0W | Draws 0 | Abha 1W.
What form are Al Shabab and Abha in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Abha (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.35) and Abha's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
66%
1.51
22%
4.52
12%
8.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.46
0.63
Abha xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
8.53
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
53%
1.87
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
35%
2.83
2%
53.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.63 for Abha, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Abha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 9W 4D 2L from 15 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Abha, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 7L across 15 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Shabab by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Abha heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 6W 1D 0L from 7 games — 2.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.07 PPG overall — Al Shabab are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Abha's away record stands at 1W 1D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.00 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Abha in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 9W 4D 2L in their last 15 games (2.07 PPG), while Abha have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Abha away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.71 PPG; Abha away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Abha in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2024, when Al Shabab won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Abha specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Shabab
1
Draws
2
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 3, Abha have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2024, when Al Shabab 5-0 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Abha?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 86% of the time.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 43%, Abha 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Al Shabab) and 29% (Abha).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Abha in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 29% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Al Shabab's recent games and 29% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Abha tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Abha in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab and Abha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Al Shabab and Abha drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.83 xG and Abha 0.63 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Shabab fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.35 / defence 0.95 against Abha attack 0.58 / defence 1.21, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 66% | Draw 22% | Abha 12%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 60%, Abha 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Abha's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Abha (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.