Al-Raed 1-0 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Raed at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sport City Stadium plays host to Al-Raed versus Al Wehda Club in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Thursday 1 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Raed have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Al-Raed have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Wehda Club (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Pro League outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Al Wehda Club have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Raed's 1.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Al Wehda Club's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Al-Raed have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Al Wehda Club in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.12 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.901 / defence 0.984 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.698 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.330. Data: 31 Al-Raed games / 1 Al Wehda Club games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 40% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Al Wehda Club 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 40% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Al-Raed 1.12 / Al Wehda Club 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.901 / def 0.984 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.698 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al Wehda Club xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 1 September 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Raed 1 - 0 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 40% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 0.90x the league average against Al Wehda Club's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Wehda Club's attack (0.70x) against Al-Raed's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
40%
2.49
30%
3.29
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.03
0.91
Al Wehda Club xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Al-Raed and 0.91 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Wehda Club's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Al-Raed against 0.00 for Al Wehda Club. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Raed are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Raed have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al Wehda Club in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al Wehda Club
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Raed
2
Draws
1
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 3, Al Wehda Club have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2025, when Al Wehda Club 3-1 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 0% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Al-Raed's recent games and 0% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Raed edge out Al Wehda Club 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al Wehda Club 1-0 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.12 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.91 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Wehda Club landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.70 / defence 1.07, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 40% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 30%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 100%, Al Wehda Club 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 0.00 PPG, Al Wehda Club 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.