Al-Raed 0-2 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 50%, yet in-form Al Taee provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Raed vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Al Taee travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 October 2022, 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Raed have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Al-Raed have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Taee — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taee away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al Taee's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Al-Raed's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Raed, 0 for Al Taee and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Raed trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Al Taee trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 39% versus Al Taee 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 47% | Al Taee 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.39 xG and Al Taee 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.908 / defence 0.988 | Al Taee attack 0.863 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.002. Al Taee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Al-Raed games / 36 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 50% | Draw 27% | Al Taee 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Al Taee 4.35. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Taee (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 20% | Al Taee 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 10 Oct 2022, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 50% | Draw 27% | Al Taee 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Raed 1.39 / Al Taee 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.908 / def 0.988 | Al Taee attack 0.863 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Al Taee xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Taee kicked off at 16:15 on Monday 10 October 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Al-Raed 0 - 2 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 50% chance of winning, Al Taee a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Taee?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 1 | Al Taee 0W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Taee in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Al Taee (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.91) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
50%
2.02
27%
3.65
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.25
0.85
Al Taee xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
6%
17.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al-Raed and 0.85 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 13W 6D 17L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taee's form line: 15W 4D 17L from 36 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.25 PPG, Al Taee on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Raed have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (9W 2D 7L).
On the road, Al Taee have gone 5W 1D 12L from 18 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.11 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al Taee
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 13W 6D 17L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 15W 4D 17L in their last 36 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.61 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2021, when Al-Raed won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
3
Draws
2
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al Taee have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Al-Raed 1-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Taee?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Raed 22% BTTS, Al Taee 28%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Al-Raed) and 44% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al-Raed have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Taee in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 28% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Al-Raed's recent games and 44% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taee cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Raed 0-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.39 xG and Al Taee 0.85 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al Taee outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Al Taee attack 0.86 / defence 1.26, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 50% | Draw 27% | Al Taee 23%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Al Taee win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 47%, Al Taee 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Taee's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.25 PPG, Al Taee 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taee win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.