Al-Raed 0-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Al Taawon travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024, 13:20 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's home record at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Taawon — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Al-Raed) versus 1.20 (Al Taawon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al Taawon have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Al-Raed.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Taawon have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 53% versus Al Taawon 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 56% | Al Taawon 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.33 xG and Al Taawon 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 1.028 / defence 1.104 | Al Taawon attack 0.753 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.209. Data: 45 Al-Raed games / 45 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 44% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taawon 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 60% | Al Taawon 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 13:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 44% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Raed 1.33 / Al Taawon 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 1.028 / def 1.104 | Al Taawon attack 0.753 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Al Taawon xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Taawon kicked off at 13:20 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Al-Raed 0 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 44% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Taawon?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 4W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Taawon in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (1.03) and Al Taawon's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.62
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.34
1.01
Al Taawon xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.01 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 13W 12D 20L from 45 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 11L across 45 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Raed heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 7W 5D 10L from 22 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 7W 9D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.38 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al Taawon in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 13W 12D 20L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 20W 14D 11L in their last 45 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.18 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al Taawon runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Taawon have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Al Taawon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
1
Draws
6
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Taawon?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al Taawon have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2025, when Al Taawon 4-3 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 54%, Al Taawon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Al-Raed) and 32% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 32%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 32% of games; Al Taawon in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 50% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Al-Raed's recent games and 32% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taawon defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Raed 0-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.33 xG and Al Taawon 1.01 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Raed fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 1.03 / defence 1.10 against Al Taawon attack 0.75 / defence 0.93, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 44% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 28%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 56%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Taawon's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.