Al-Raed 2-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Shabab (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Raed face Al Shabab.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Al-Raed welcome Al Shabab to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Raed have posted 3W 1D 6L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Shabab — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Al Shabab have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Al-Raed's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Al Shabab winning.
It is worth noting that Al Shabab have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 46% versus Al Shabab 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 54% | Al Shabab 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.63 xG and Al Shabab 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 1.050 / defence 1.314 | Al Shabab attack 1.148 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.342. Data: 50 Al-Raed games / 50 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 31% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | Al Shabab 2.13. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 2.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 70% | Al Shabab 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 31% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Al-Raed 1.63 / Al Shabab 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 1.050 / def 1.314 | Al Shabab attack 1.148 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Al Shabab xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Shabab kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Al-Raed 2 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 31% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Shabab?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 3W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Shabab in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 1.05x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
31%
3.22
22%
4.50
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.66
2.02
Al Shabab xG
3.22
31%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
13%
7.57
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
4%
24.40
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Al-Raed and 2.02 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed come into this having played 50 games, going 17W 9D 24L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.96 PPG from 50 outings (28W 14D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Raed's home form reads 9W 3D 12L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.67 points per game from 24 outings (11W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.86 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 17W 9D 24L in their last 50 games (1.20 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 28W 14D 8L in their last 50 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.25 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al Shabab runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al Shabab have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2021, when Al Shabab won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
1
Draws
6
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Shabab?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al Shabab have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 42%, Al Shabab 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al-Raed) and 62% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 67% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Al-Raed's recent games and 62% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed and Al Shabab finished level at 2-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.63 xG and Al Shabab 2.02 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 1.05 / defence 1.31 against Al Shabab attack 1.15 / defence 1.12, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 31% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 47%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 54%, Al Shabab 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.