Al-Raed 0-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Nassr make the trip to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to face Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Raed (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al-Raed are significantly better at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Nassr have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Al-Nassr are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Raed lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Raed — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 38% versus Al-Nassr 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 46% | Al-Nassr 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.05 xG and Al-Nassr 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.752 / defence 1.055 | Al-Nassr attack 0.986 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.217. Al-Raed's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Al-Raed games / 26 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 31% | Draw 28% | Al-Nassr 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Nassr 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 30% | Al-Nassr 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 31% | Draw 28% | Al-Nassr 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Raed 1.05 / Al-Nassr 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.752 / def 1.055 | Al-Nassr attack 0.986 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Al-Nassr xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Raed 0 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 31% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Nassr?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Nassr 0W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.75) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (0.99x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
31%
3.26
28%
3.57
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.32
1.27
Al-Nassr xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
9%
11.55
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.27 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 8W 6D 12L from 26 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr, meanwhile, have gone 16W 3D 7L across 26 games — 1.96 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Raed heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 6W 2D 4L from 12 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Al-Raed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Nassr's away record stands at 7W 2D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Raed are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 1.85 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 8W 6D 12L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 16W 3D 7L in their last 26 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.67 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 4-0 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
2
Draws
5
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Nassr?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Raed see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 25%, Al-Nassr 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al-Raed) and 50% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 50% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Raed's recent games and 50% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Raed 0-3 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.05 xG and Al-Nassr 1.27 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.75 / defence 1.05 against Al-Nassr attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 31% | Draw 28% | Al-Nassr 41%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 46%, Al-Nassr 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.