Al-Raed 1-2 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 38%, yet in-form Al-Ittihad FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 January 2022 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City this season: 5W 1D 1L from 7 home games — 2.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.29 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Raed are significantly better at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 away fixtures this term (2.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Raed have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 40% versus Al-Ittihad FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 53% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.28 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.986 / defence 0.907 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.092 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.173. Data: 16 Al-Raed games / 15 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 38% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ittihad FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ittihad FC (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 14% | Al-Ittihad FC 67%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jan 2022, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 38% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Raed 1.28 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.986 / def 0.907 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.092 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al-Ittihad FC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 14 January 2022 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Raed 1 - 2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 38% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 1W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.40
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.44
1.16
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.16 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Raed come into this having played 15 games, going 6W 3D 6L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.33 PPG from 15 outings (11W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Raed's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Al-Raed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 2.17 points per game from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.07 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 games (1.40 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 11W 2D 2L in their last 15 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Raed's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 2.17 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2021, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
1
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2025, when Al-Raed 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 17%, Al-Ittihad FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Al-Raed and 50% for Al-Ittihad FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Al-Raed's recent games and 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ittihad FC defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Raed 1-2 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.28 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.19, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 38% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad FC 32%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al-Ittihad FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 53%, Al-Ittihad FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Raed (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.