Al-Raed 1-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Raed and Al-Fateh meet at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 12 August 2021 at 17:20 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.04 xG and Al-Fateh 0.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Fateh attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 0.510. Data: 0 Al-Raed games / 0 Al-Fateh games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 49% | Draw 34% | Al-Fateh 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.04 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Fateh 5.88. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 25% | Total xG 1.54. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.54 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 75% — Al-Fateh's lower xG of 0.50 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 25%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 20% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Aug 2021, 17:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 49% | Draw 34% | Al-Fateh 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 25% | xG Al-Raed 1.04 / Al-Fateh 0.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al-Fateh attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.070 / away 0.510 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
0.50
Al-Fateh xG
25%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:20 on Thursday 12 August 2021 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Raed 1 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 49% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 17% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 25% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Fateh in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.85x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.50.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (20.9%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
49%
2.06
34%
2.94
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
22.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
21.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
1.54
0.50
Al-Fateh xG
2.06
49%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
25%
BTTS Yes
3.93
75%
BTTS No
1.34
Clean Sheet
61%
1.65
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
30%
3.39
6%
16.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.4 | 10.7 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 22.3 | 11.1 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.8%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Al-Raed and 0.50 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 1.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Pre-Season
Al-Fateh
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 0-3 on 10 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Raed
0
Draws
5
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Fateh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 3, Al-Fateh have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2025, when Al-Fateh 3-1 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Raed edge out Al-Fateh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al-Fateh 1-0 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.04 xG and Al-Fateh 0.50 xG, a combined 1.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al-Fateh attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 49% | Draw 34% | Al-Fateh 17%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 46% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 25% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.