Al-Raed 1-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Al-Ettifaq at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 11:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 2L across 8 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Raed are significantly better at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's away record: 2W 3D 4L from 9 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Raed at 1.30 PPG versus Al-Ettifaq's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Raed, 0 for Al-Ettifaq and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 39% versus Al-Ettifaq 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 50% | Al-Ettifaq 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.38 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.953 / defence 1.029 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.970 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.136. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Al-Raed games / 18 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 42% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ettifaq 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 25% | Al-Ettifaq 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 11:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 42% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Raed 1.38 / Al-Ettifaq 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.953 / def 1.029 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.970 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Al-Ettifaq xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 11:50 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Raed 1 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 42% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
42%
2.41
29%
3.50
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.51
1.13
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
8%
13.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.13 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 7W 3D 8L from 18 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 4W 7D 7L across 18 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.33 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 5W 1D 2L from 8 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Al-Raed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 7W 3D 8L in their last 18 games (1.33 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 7D 7L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Raed's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
5
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Al-Raed 1-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 25%, Al-Ettifaq 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al-Raed) and 62% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Raed's recent games and 62% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.38 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.13 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.97 / defence 1.31, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 42% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 30%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 50%, Al-Ettifaq 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.33 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.